November’s climate negotiations in Scotland must conclude the Paris rulebook and raise ambition levels through pledging to stricter climate targets. The hope is that if one big emitter pledges to raise its ambition levels, others will follow. But while 73 parties signalled intentions in Madrid to increase their 2030 targets this year, they account for only around a tenth of global emissions. Countries have been asked to detail strategies for long-term low greenhouse-gas emissions this year but some are reluctant because of the potential economic and political disruptions that might follow such policy change.
So the gap between where we are and where we should be on greenhouse-gas emissions is getting wider with little sign of change. It means even deeper reductions are now required to get back on track, requiring tougher policies by both countries and companies. Global emissions would need to fall 25 per cent to limit global warming to the 2°C pathway by 2030, and by 55 per cent to achieve the preferred 1.5°C. But as the general public becomes more aware of the need for climate action, we believe that 2020 will see even more pressure applied to institutions, whether public, private, or non-profit.
This report by HSBC Global Research provides insights on climate topics for the year ahead, culminating in the COP 26 climate talks taking place from 9-20 November in Glasgow, UK.