City clusters will power China's future productivity growth and the most productive will be the Greater Bay Area, which combines the nine cities of the Pearl River Delta with the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macao.
The Greater Bay Area comprises 1 per cent of China's land mass but has a population of 70 million and produces 37 per cent of the country's exports and 12 per cent of its GDP. The region is already the world's 15th largest economy but we expect its GDP to reach USD2.8 trillion by 2025, making it 9th largest. Only three countries export more than this new city cluster.
The region has led China's industrial upgrading and innovation and accounts for most of its international patent applications. Its GDP per head, at USD21,764, exceeds the other 18 new supercities and is more than twice that of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cluster, but we expect its consumer markets to double by 2025 to exceed USD900 billion.